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Why adoption estimates vary so much between studies
Institutional researchers regularly encounter two credible-looking studies reporting AI adoption twenty points apart, and conclude that one must be wrong. Usually neither is. Four design choices move the number substantially before any real behaviour is involved.
- The verb. “Have you ever used” produces a far higher figure than “do you regularly use,” which in turn exceeds “did you use, for this assessment.”
- The object. “AI tools” includes spelling and grammar checkers many students do not think of as AI; “generative AI” is narrower; “ChatGPT” narrower still.
- The population. Undergraduate coursework, taught postgraduate work and doctoral research have different task structures, so a single adoption rate across them is an average of unlike things.
- The framing. A question preceded by academic integrity language depresses reported use, because it signals that an answer may be judged.
The practical consequence is that a difference between two studies is usually a difference between two questions. Before reconciling figures, put the two question wordings side by side; if they differ, there is nothing to reconcile.
What students say about their institutions
The institutional-performance figures are the ones most useful for a business case, because they describe a gap the institution controls.
| Measure | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Agree their institution encourages AI use | 37% | 29% |
| Disagree that their institution encourages AI use | 36% | 40% |
| Say they are provided with AI tools by their institution | 38% | — |
| Say teaching staff help them develop AI skills | 48% | — |
| Believe AI skills are essential | 68% | 67% |
| Say assessment has changed significantly in response to AI | 65% | 59% (“a lot”) |
| Say university staff are “well-equipped” to work with AI | — | 42% (from 18% in 2024) |
Three readings worth taking from that table.
The population is split, not aligned. In 2026, 37% agree their institution encourages AI use and 36% disagree. A near-even split among students at the same institutions is a communication finding, not an attitude finding: it indicates that what is permitted is not reliably reaching the people doing the assessments.
Provision lags expectation by 30 points. 68% believe AI skills are essential; 38% say their institution provides tools. Whatever else that gap describes, it describes students buying capability privately, which turns attainment into a function of household budget.
Staff capability is improving from a very low base. The proportion saying staff are well-equipped moved from 18% to 42% between the 2024 and 2025 waves. That is real progress and still leaves a majority unconvinced.
The figures that get misused
Four specific cautions, each of which we have seen produce a wrong decision.
- Do not convert 94% into a misconduct estimate. It counts permitted activity. The narrow measure is 12%, and even that is not a breach rate.
- Do not apply UK undergraduate figures to postgraduate populations. The survey does not sample them, and thesis-stage work has a different task structure entirely.
- Do not compare across surveys with different wording. Adoption estimates vary widely by instrument, which is why the internal HEPI series is usable and cross-vendor comparisons generally are not.
- Do not treat self-report as behaviour. These are students describing their own conduct in a context where some of it may be prohibited. Self-report on sensitive behaviour is conventionally understood to under-report.
Point four cuts against our own framing, which is why it belongs here: the 12% is plausibly a floor rather than a central estimate. Presenting it as precise would be as wrong as presenting 94% as a cheating rate.
What we could not verify
In preparing this piece we attempted to retrieve several other frequently cited sector sources directly and were blocked by automated challenges rather than served content. We have therefore excluded them entirely rather than cite figures at second hand.
That exclusion is itself informative for institutional researchers: a good deal of what circulates as “sector data” on AI adoption cannot be traced by a reader to a document with a stated sample and method. If a figure in your board paper cannot be traced to an opened source, it should not be in your board paper.
How to use these numbers in an institutional paper
- Quote the pair, never the single figure. “94% use generative AI to help with assessed work; 12% include AI-generated text directly” is honest and instantly reframes the discussion.
- Carry the sample. Survey house, month of fieldwork, n, and population, in the sentence or the footnote.
- Use the trend, not the level, for planning. 3 → 8 → 12 tells you what to prepare for; a single year’s level tells you where you were.
- Pair national figures with a local instrument. A short, stable, repeated internal survey is worth more for your decisions than any national number, because it samples your students.
- Fix the wording and never change it. The only reason the national series is usable is that its questions stayed comparable.
That fourth point is the one institutions most often skip and most often need. National data tells you the direction of travel; it cannot tell you whether your policy is landing. The measurement design for a local instrument is covered in our guide to running a departmental pilot, and the policy components those numbers should inform are in what a university AI policy should include.
If you would like to discuss what a defensible internal measurement baseline looks like alongside a platform evaluation, request an institutional evaluation.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of students use AI?
95% reported using AI in at least one way in HEPI’s 2026 survey of 1,054 full-time UK undergraduates.
How many use it for assessed work?
94% in the same survey — a measure that includes explaining concepts, summarising and checking phrasing.
How many submit AI-generated text?
12%, up from 8% in 2025 and 3% in 2024.
Is 12% a cheating rate?
No. Including AI-generated text is permitted in some assessments, and where it is permitted and disclosed it is not misconduct.
Do these figures cover postgraduates?
No. The sample is full-time undergraduates in the UK.
Are the figures internationally comparable?
Not reliably. Estimates vary substantially by instrument and population, so cross-survey comparison should be avoided unless the wording matches.
How reliable is self-reported data on this?
Treat it as a floor. Self-report on potentially sanctionable behaviour conventionally under-reports.
Do students think their institutions support them?
They are split: 37% agree their institution encourages AI use and 36% disagree, while 48% feel teaching staff help them develop AI skills.
How many students get AI tools from their institution?
38% say they are provided with AI tools.
Has assessment changed?
65% of students in 2026 say assessment has changed significantly in response to AI.
Why is my figure different from another report’s?
Almost always sample and wording. Before reconciling two numbers, check whether they measure the same behaviour in the same population — the general problem covered in our piece on how current your higher education data actually is.
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